BOULDER – The old quote credited to Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana goes, "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." And while Colorado women's basketball would rather forget plenty of its history, an improbable run to the Sweet 16 in 2023 kickstarted a sense of pride in a unit that is now in the center of athletic attention at CU in terms of results.
While that season ended at the hands of Iowa, the eventual national runner-up, the belief in head coach JR Payne now having a program, that just half a decade prior was a bottom-feeder of the Pac-12, heading in the right direction was incredibly prevalent. So, how do the black and gold build on it? The same mountain will have to be climbed twice.
No. 5 seed Colorado (24-9) takes on No. 1 seed Iowa (31-4) on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. MT in a rematch of last year's Sweet 16 matchup that ended in a 87-77 Iowa victory. The contest will take place at MVP Arena in Albany, New York, and broadcast on ABC. The Buffs may not have expected to end up against the same team in the same NCAA Tournament round two years in a row, but maybe they yearned for it.
"They return almost everybody, we return almost everybody [from last season]," Payne said in a media session on Tuesday. "So in a lot of ways, two very, very similar teams."
Saturday will be a make-or-break moment for this era of CU, as five of the team's eight-player rotation are likely playing for their college basketball careers along with what would be just the fourth Elite 8 berth in program history. Can the Buffaloes find sweet revenge against the Hawkeyes to earn a benchmark not seen by the university in 21 years? Or will their season end, results plateau, and history repeat itself?
It all starts with Caitlin Clark. The senior guard has quickly risen from simply a spectacular talent to a household name in the world of sports. She is the leading scorer in the history of NCAA Division I basketball (both men's and women's) and will leave a collegiate resume that speaks for itself and is worthy of a painting in the Louvre.
Clark's crown has been weighing heavier as of late though, as the pressure is on to win a national title before her time at Iowa is over. In order for the Buffs to shock the world and send the golden child of college basketball home for the final time in her illustrious career, there will be very little room for error.
Schematically, Clark poses a threat to contribute anywhere on the court. Her long-distance shooting is the most heavily perceived part of her play, but her playmaking and vision will task CU's entire defense to keep their heads on swivels. There are a few fascinating weaknesses to be exploited, though.
When Clark rejects an on-ball screen, she scores 59% of the time, so expect the Buffaloes to send blitzes and double-teams while forcing her to use the screens within the flow of Iowa's attack. This scenario causes Clark's scoring rate to drop to just 39%.
In her last five games, Clark is shooting just 40% from the field, seven points below her average. However, the physical style that her opponents have played to cause this inefficiency has also led to the guard's whistle quickening and free throws coming early and often.
She is an 86% career free throw shooter and averaged 8.8 free throw attempts in those five aforementioned games, including 12 in a somewhat controversial fashion against West Virginia in the round of 32. The Mountaineers' physicality limited the Hawkeye offense to just 64 points, their second-lowest point total all season. However, it led to an extreme free throw attempt discrepancy of 30 to five and made a massive difference in a contest that put the Hawkeyes on upset alert.
In last year's Sweet 16, three of Colorado's five starters fouled out. To counter the possibility of fouls being a deciding factor and to have a better chance at victory, Jaylyn Sherrod, Kindyll Wetta and others will have to walk on eggshells yet also remain disruptive while guarding her.
"We can’t feed into her emotions that she’s going to play with,” senior guard Tameiya Sadler told The Denver Post of Clark. "She’s going to fall, she’s going to throw up her hands, she’s going to talk to the refs. But at the end of the day, we can’t focus on that. We have to focus on us."
Another strategy to watch out for is forcing Clark to her off-hand. When she drives to her left, her rate of drawing fouls plummets from 27% to 12%.
While Clark will pick up the bulk of their attention, Colorado will have an array of other weapons in Iowa's arsenal to deal with.
Hannah Stuelke has had a breakout sophomore season in replacing Monika Czinano in the frontcourt, adding 14.1 points on 63.5% shooting and 6.7 rebounds a game. Gabbie Marshall and Sydney Affolter have gone under the radar to pack their own unique punch of scoring, rebounding and leadership. Finally, Kate Martin has been a beacon of leadership and consistency while also averaging 11 points and 12 rebounds in her opening March Madness weekend.
"They have improved, especially Martin,” Maddie Nolan noted on Tuesday. “She, in my opinion, is their glue and an X-factor for them, as well."
Nolan is the only member of CU's squad to have defeated Iowa before, transferring from Michigan this past offseason. Her recent 3-point shot will be direly needed against the Hawkeyes, who have the highest-scoring offense in the country with nearly six points between them and second place (92.0 points per game).
Nolan is currently averaging a career-high in 3-point percentage (43.5%) and since Feb. 4 has been on a heater (52.8%). Frida Formann was the key to keeping the Buffs deadlocked with the Hawkeyes in last year's Sweet 16 with 19 of her 21 points in the first half, and the addition of Nolan makes getting shots to fall from long-distance especially important.
Formann had an excellent start to this season but has recently struggled to find her stride, shooting a combined 0-for-2 from beyond the arc against Drake and Kansas State. The senior is still tied with Bianca Smith for the most three-pointers made in CU history (257), but for the first time in her college career, has played consecutive games without a single make.
"When I played in Denmark, I could never have two games with this few points and we’d still win, but now I’m on a team where I’m starting and I really just have to do my role and that doesn’t even need to be scoring," Formann mentioned of the drought. "So I think that’s really a privilege."
It will be vital for the Danish guard to channel the shooting that has stamped her name in the record books to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Big 10 champions, as it correlates well with successful interior work done by Aaronette Vonleh and relentless rim pressure from Sherrod. For CU to click on all cylinders and respond to the inevitable scoring flurries of Clark and other Hawkeyes, generating triples will be paramount.
There is another old quote from Frank Sinatra that goes, "The best revenge is massive success." For a team that has overachieved so many times before their recent success, the Buffs seem almost refreshed to be back in the "giant-killer" role that has garnered them wins over LSU and Stanford this season, as well as UCLA and Duke last season.
Colorado will need offensive and defensive contributions all across the board to beat the Hawkeyes, and even then it would be difficult to knock them off. Per DraftKings, the black and gold are currently seven-point underdogs against the Hawkeyes. However, CU looked locked in on both ends during their opening tournament weekend in Manhattan, Kansas, and is dead set on revenge that would make a statement.
"Being the villain, being the underdogs, having our backs against the walls, are all things that lead for success for the Buffaloes," proclaimed Quay Miller, one of the five players in their final season at Colorado. "Being able to have that type of experience and take advantage of the opportunity is just something that we're really going to be big about."
The moment of truth is rapidly approaching, as the Buffs are getting ready for the national spotlight in the Sweet 16 against Iowa this Saturday. Tipoff from MVP Arena in Albany is set for 1:30 p.m. MT on ABC. The winner of the rematch will advance to the Elite 8 to play the winner of LSU and UCLA.
Cover photo by Roberto Patrick Gerra/Sko Buffs Sports
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