Buffs face No. 14 Houston in week 11 match
By: Shane Holcombe & Jake Chau
Friday Night Lights return to Folsom Field when the Colorado Buffaloes (3-6, 1-5 Big 12) host the No. 14-ranked Houston Cougars (7-2, 4-2).
Meet the opponent
Houston has had an impressive season, dropping only to the No. 13-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders and No. 10 Utah by a combined 10 points.
Their offense has been putting the Cougars in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Houston is averaging over 35 points and nearly 475 yards per game, led by senior quarterback Conner Weigman.
Weigman has passed for over 2,200 yards and 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He also threatens with his legs, rushingfor 279 yards and seven touchdowns.
Weigman, in his own right, will be a handful for the Buffaloes.
“I feel like he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country,” head coach Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders said ahead of the game. “The kid can flat out spin it. [He doesn’t] make a lot of mistakes.”
Colorado will also have to watch out for running backs Makhi Hughes and Re'Shaun Sanford II. Together, they've combined for over 1,100 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. They have Houston as a top-five rushing offense in the Big 12.
If Houston isn’t handing it off, it’ll look to their top receiving threat, Amare Thomas. Thomas is just two yards shy of 700 receiving yards with eight touchdowns.
“They're fundamentally sound,” Sanders said. “They don't make a lot of mistakes.”
The Cougars also have the nation’s fourth-best touchdown rate, scoring a touchdown on exactly half of all total drives.
Limiting touchdowns has been a bigger struggle for Houston. Even though they’re allowing opponents to score 6 points on under 30% of their drives, that number still puts them in the bottom half of the nation.
Overall, Houston’s defense has been good enough to keep them in games, leaning on their takeaway ability. Their 13 takeaways are good enough to rank top-50 nationally.
“We welcome the challenge,” Sanders said.
How Colorado wins
Shane: Folsom voodoo magic.
Weird things happen on Friday the 13th, and a win would arguably be the biggest of the Coach Prime era. Colorado’s offense finally matches its defense’s firepower, and quarterback Isaac Wilson has his highest passing-yard mark in the black and gold.
The Buffs are gonna have to put up points, as Houston averages 35.4 points per game, the 22nd-highest in the country. If Colorado offensive coordinator Brennan Marion can throw some wrinkles into what’s been a lackluster attack, “Big 12 after-dark” could claim another ranked victim.
Jake: Give Houston a problem.
Houston is one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation, and if one facet of their game is shut down, they can lean on another part. The Buffs could find themselves on an improbable path to victory by shutting down at least one part of Houston’s game.
Making the Cougars one-dimensional on offense and keeping them from gaining momentum could give the Buffs some light.
How Colorado loses
Jake: Start weak.
Overcoming early momentum for Houston will be hard. In each of two matches against ranked opponents this season, the Buffs have started strong and gave themselves a chance for an upset. A weak start would gash their hopes of a win.
Shane: CU’s defense can’t turn Weigman over.
The Buffs haven’t forced a turnover in three straight games, and causing disruption hasn’t been a strength.
“I’m starving for a turnover,” Colorado safety Randon Fontenette said on Tuesday.
Winning the turnover battle is key to pulling off an upset and could light a fire under Folsom Field to be a raucous environment Friday night.
X factor
Shane: Deion Sanders.
The head coach is on borrowed time, and he needs to be willing to take all the risks. This will be the last home game of the season with students in attendance, and taking more shots downfield and dialing up pressure on Weigman would go a long way toward keeping this fanbase engaged.
Be on the lookout for new offensive formations to use the deep-play threats of CU wide receivers Joseph Williams and DeAndre Moore Jr. With only three games left, if not now, then when?
Jake: Chris Marve.
With Sanders on the hot seat and potentially on his way out after this game, Marve will have an opportunity to show why he should get the nod as interim head coach.
A well-prepared defense and a strong performance against a team that’s had over 450 yards in more than half their games could boost his case for interim head coach.
It’ll also boost the Buffs’ chances of winning, especially if they can cause a turnover.
Bold prediction
Jake: Colorado gets shutout.
The offense has looked lackluster outside maybe two or three drives a game. The Houston defense has allowed 21 points or more in every game this season, except against the FCS’ Southern, which could let the Buffs start to get their offensive wheels turning.
Shane: Colorado scores on its first drive.
I think this game could feel like the Buffs’ earlier loss this season to then-No. 12 Texas Tech. This is another game where CU is punching above its weight, which makes the first half more important for the upset-minded Buffs to make a statement.
Final score prediction
Shane: Weird things happen on Friday the 13th, but a win for Colorado football against a top-15 team would be even weirder. The Buffs’ last win over a College Football Playoff committee-ranked team was against then-No. 22 Utah in November 2016.
Houston takes another step toward a long-shot at-large bid to the playoffs, winning 28-13 and eliminating Colorado from bowl-eligibility contention.
Jake: 38-0. In line with my bold prediction, Colorado can’t put points up on the board, and Houston’s offense trounces the Buffs. Sanders has also lost 14 games against ranked opponents on 16 tries. Houston is too good an opponent to give Sanders his third win against a ranked opponent.
Kickoff in Boulder is at 8:15 p.m. MT (ESPN).
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