Colorado enters final stretch in control of tournament destiny

Over the last eight games, Colorado has going 7-1 placing themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation. (Photo by Cristian Blanco/Sko Buffs Sports)

It’s been a season-long pilgrimage to make the NCAA tournament, but three games decide if the Colorado Buffaloes make the promised land. 

The Buffaloes have been living on the bubble the entire season, placing themselves firmly in the March conversation as of late. Dubs in seven of their last eight games, including an upset against No. 14 TCU and a statement 30-point win against BYU. 

That BYU win popped the bubble and placed them in the Last Four In category of ESPN’s Bracketology. Currently, ESPN has Colorado (19-8, 10-5 Big 12) as a 12 seed and playing in the First Four. 

However, the Buffaloes can’t look too far ahead, with resume-boosting opportunities remaining.

First up is a home test against No. 20 Texas Tech; both a challenge and a chance to make a statement. Colorado then stays in Boulder to face a Utah team looking to place its name in the tourney convo as the First Team Out according to ESPN. The regular season closes in Provo, where the Buffaloes will need to replicate their home success against BYU on the road.

“We have no issue looking too far ahead … because we don’t allow it,” head coach JR Payne said. “We try to be excellent each and every day.” 

At No. 43 in NET Rankings with just one Quad-1 win and a 4-1 Quad-2 record, Colorado’s resume remains fragile. Good enough to be in the field, not strong enough to breathe easy. 

Run the table and the Buffaloes stack another upset victory, add a road win and cross the 20-win threshold. With tourney bids defined by metrics, Colorado’s final stretch could be the difference between a nervous Selection Sunday or hearing its name called in confidence. 

“Keep winning,”Payne said about the next stretch of games. “We’re doing what it takes to win in March, and that’s the biggest thing.” 

The Buffaloes still aren’t a perfect team, and their last game against Arizona showed it. Colorado played down to the Wildcats, the second-worst team in the conference, and had to erase a seven-point deficit late in the fourth quarter.

“Our biggest focus needs to be on communication,” Payne said. “There’s too many possessions at this point in the year where we’re not all five knowing exactly what we’re doing.” 

Being a potential tourney team with a 10-player roster turnover is no small feat. As the season has progressed, the group has grown more comfortable with one another, allowing the Buffaloes to heat up at the right time.

“As the season [kept] on going, we built more chemistry on the court,” forward Anaelle Dutat said. “I think it’s paying off right now when the moment is really needed … we can really lean on each other and play to each other’s strengths.” 

Late-season surges are rare for teams trying to make a March run. In Colorado’s last trip to the Sweet 16, the Buffaloes closed the regular season by losing five of their final six games.

“Some of the best teams we’ve ever coached … were not playing [their] best basketball in March,” Payne said. “There aren’t many teams that are doing what we’re doing at this point in the season.” 

Before its current 7-1 stretch, Colorado fell to bottom-five Big 12 team UCF for its fifth straight conference road loss. A glaring hole in a resume where away wins carry extra weight with the selection committee. 

The Buffaloes responded with a Quad 2 victory over Oklahoma State at home before heading to Kansas for a two-game trip with one goal in mind: win away from Boulder.

“Around the Kansas road trip, we were like ‘man, we got to get a road win,’” guard Zyanna Walker said. “From there on out, we haven’t lost a road game.” 

The path is clear: three games to bolster a bubble resume into a tournament lock. For a team that rebuilt its roster and found its rhythm at the right time, the destination is straight ahead. The promised land is in sight, and the Buffaloes control their destiny.