Colorado looks to improve bowl eligibility chances at Arizona State
By: Shane Holcombe & Jake Chau
Colorado football (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) returned to the win column last week against Kansas State.
CU head coach Deion Sanders is trying to keep his hot seat cool as he leads the Buffaloes on the road against the Arizona State Sun Devils (4-4, 2-3).
Rome Kadi, ASU student journalist, joins this week’s preview to help give the Sun Devil angle.
Meet the opponent
Arizona State didn’t have much expectation coming into head coach Kenny Dillingham’s fourth season. A big part was because of massive roster turnover, including the loss of former starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who transferred to LSU.
The Sun Devils’ first eight games have been up-and-down. A bunch of injuries have led their offensive line to use seven different starting combinations. Like Colorado, ASU has played three quarterbacks this season after starting the year with Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley. Freshman signal caller Jake Fette is slated to start against Colorado.
Fette completed 52% of his passes and threw for 2 touchdowns in his first career start at BYU last week.
True freshman running back Cardae Mack has exploded into one of college football's most exciting young backs. Named a semifinalist for National Freshman of the Year, Mack has three 100+ yard games.
Wide receivers Reed Harris (804 yards, 8 TDs) and former Buff Omarion Miller (427 yards, 3 TDs) are weapons in the passing game and could hurt a struggling Colorado secondary.
How Colorado wins
Shane: Keep leaning on the running backs in the red zone.
Last week was the first time this season Colorado had two or more rushing touchdowns from its backs, coming from Richard Young and JaQuail Smith
Buffaloes’ quarterback Isaac Wilson cited not having much on his shoulders as the reason for the win, so offensive coordinator Brennan Marion should replicate that strategy again.
Jake: Get to the quarterback.
Arizona State has allowed the most sacks in the Big 12, and going against a defensive front that had five sacks last week against Kansas State, wreaking havoc will be key to limiting the Sun Devil offense.
Rome: The Sun Devils can’t stop a Colorado no-huddle offense.
ASU has struggled to stop the vertical passing threat under defensive coordinator Brian Ward, especially when they gave up 306 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns against Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway.
How Colorado loses
Jake: Turnovers.
Last week, Arizona State stayed in the game with No. 8 BYU because of its defense, which forced two turnovers. Wilson also not throwing an interception was a big reason the Buffs beat Kansas State last week.
If Wilson reverts to his old ways and throws a pick or two, the Buffs will have a much harder time in their path to victory.
Shane: The CU defense allows it to become a shootout.
Colorado has yet to score 30 points or more against a FBS opponent this season and can't go toe-to-toe in an offensive fireworks game.
Buffs linebacker Gideon ESPN Lampron and safety Randon Fontenette have to step up to keep this game lower-scoring. This will give Colorado a more methodical, running-based Buffs attack a chance to stay in it.
Rome : QB Jake Fette got the Sun Devils back into the game against BYU by being aggressive, and he threw a ‘Wow’ touchdown to Omarion Miller. He can gunsling again against a weaker Colorado secondary this weekend. But the more potent threat people aren’t talking enough about is Mack. He has 6 touchdowns this season, including a whopping 4 in ASU’s win against Kansas State.
X factor
Shane: ASU kicker Carson Smith.
This selection is a little out of left field, but with the Sun Devils scoring touchdowns at only a 63% rate on red zone drives, Smith has met the moment, making 11 of 12 field goals, including a 47-yarder.
Watch this space if Colorado’s defense can get off the field, as they allow opponents to score touchdowns on 82% of red zone attempts.
Jake: Coach Prime.
Sanders’ seat has never been hotter, and after an unconvincing overtime win at home against Kansas State, his seat remains hot.
There’s chatter that should Sanders lose this game on the road, Colorado may cut ties with its coach. In the midst of an uninspiring season, the Buffs are also still underdogs for their remaining games.
Penalties will also be huge because ASU is the second-most disciplined team in the Big 12. If the season trend of 80 penalty yards a game continues, the Buffs will be doing themselves no favors if they’re out-penalized.
Sanders needs to coach like it’s his last game, because it might be.
Rome: Fette.
If he takes care of the football under pressure, this should be a win for Arizona State. He was thrown into the fire after a quarterback change from Cutter Boley and has responded well so far.
Bold prediction
Jake: Continuing on that theme, my bold prediction is that Colorado is out-penalized 70-25 yards, finds a way to fumble this game, and fires its head coach as a result.
Shane: Against his former team, Omarion Miller outshines his receiving sidekick, Harris, for the most yards in the game of any ASU player. I think Miller will be out to prove a point against Colorado, and he has to be licking his chops facing a Buffs secondary giving up 250 passing yards a game, a bottom-five mark in the Big 12.
Final score prediction
Shane: Arizona State has more playmakers on offense, so I’m picking the Sun Devils to win 31-23 and improve to 4-1 at Mountain America Stadium this season. Coach Prime always raves about how much he admires Kenny Dillingham, and I think he gets outcoached by his youngster.
Jake: The Sun Devils are a pretty even match to the Buffs, but at home in Tempe, Arizona, Arizona State will have Miller to fuel a 35-24 win over Colorado.
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