Colorado looks to right the ship against Baylor
By: Shane Holcombe & Jake Chau
Featuring Wilson Woodruff (Baylor Athletics)
The last time the Colorado Buffaloes and Baylor Bears faced off, Shedeur Sanders connected with LaJohntay Wester on a prayer to force overtime. Two seasons later, the Buffs will need a little bit of that magic.
After a blowout loss to the Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) last week, the Colorado Buffaloes (2-1) will open up Big 12 play against the Baylor Bears (2-1) at 10 a.m. MT (ESPN2).
Meet the opponent
Baylor also enters conference play after losing to Auburn 17-16 in week zero and beating up on Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech last week. Their defense has been a bright spot, only allowing 13 points per game, good enough for the fifth-best mark in the conference. Yards-wise, the Bears are middle of the pack both offensively and defensively, at eighth and ninth, respectively.
Under center for the Bears is former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway. The former five-star was injured during their season opener and hasn’t seen the field since. He’s listed as questionable, but is expected to return ahead of Saturday’s game against the Buffs.
He threw for two touchdowns and 333 yards against Auburn and in a system that’s working for Baylor. In his place, backup Nate Bennett took the reins, throwing for 567 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions the past two weeks. That production is due to Baylor’s offensive coordinator Jake Spavital’s Air Raid offense.
The Bears are averaging just 162 rushing yards per game —the second-worst mark in the Big 12. Still, head coach Dave Aranda will take 162 yards on the ground if his team averages over 300 yards through the air.
Baylor perspective from Wilson Woodruff
Wilson: Baylor’s defense has been their biggest strength so far and forced three turnovers in the opener against Auburn. That unit has proved they can be disruptive, and I think that could play into this game because Colorado struggled with four turnovers against Northwestern. If Baylor's defense can put some pressure on Julian Lewis, Baylor has a good chance to come out with a win.
A healthier DJ Lagway threw for 333 yards against Auburn and at times made some of the most impressive throws I've ever seen. But at times he was quite careless with the football. So the biggest question is how close to 100% he'll be coming off that ankle injury. How much mobility will he have, and will he be able to take care of the football? However, I do really like Baylor's chances of keeping the chains moving and finally putting some red-zone points on the board.
How Colorado wins the game
Jake: Colorado has made a fool of themselves the past few weeks by losing the penalty and turnover battle. The Buffs have to stop shooting themselves in the foot, and by winning in either area, they’ll set themselves up for an easier time against Baylor.
Colorado is averaging over 82 penalty yards per game, the worst mark in the conference. Baylor is second-worst, averaging 73 penalty yards per game. Exploiting that area will be huge for the Buffs as they look to stifle the Bears’ offense.
In the turnover battle, Colorado needs to take care of the ball and stop giving the game to their opponents. Colorado has turned the ball over with a fumble or interception five times this season; opponents have scored on the following drive four times. The Buffs have gotten points two of the three times they’ve forced turnovers themselves.
Should the Buffs win the turnover battle, they’ll have to go down and score on a Bears defense that has only allowed two total scores off seven turnovers.
Shane: Make Baylor one-dimensional on offense. The Bears’ biggest weakness so far this season has been running the football; they're averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, which is the worst mark in the Big 12. Also, if the Colorado defense can force Lagway outside the pocket, he is likely to make mistakes. Lagway completed only 50% of his passes and threw an interception in the Bears’ week one loss to Auburn.
He sometimes leaves clean pockets prematurely, rather than stepping up in protection. Lagway will play Saturday on an already sprained ankle. Colorado defensive coordinator Chris Marve will try to bang him up even more.
How Colorado loses the game
Shane: If the Buffaloes can’t get out of their own way again. Last week’s nine-penalty performance against Northwestern followed week two’s 13 penalties committed against Weber State. Simply put, this team needs to have more discipline. Colorado doesn’t want back-to-back weeks where the talent gap isn’t wide, but can only look back on self-inflicted mistakes that turn into a loss.
Jake: If the Buffs allow Lagway to have his way with their defense, they’ll be in for a long afternoon. The Buffs' secondary has allowed opponents to throw for 241 yards, and with an offense that’s looking to throw the ball, Colorado has to limit the pass.
X Factor
Jake: After Sanders announced roster cuts on Tuesday, the team will travel with fewer players than they did last week. That’s why the head coach will be the X Factor this week. Can he right the ship with the roster moves? Will it light a fire under the rest of the players? Or are the culture issues bigger than the players he cut? These questions will be answered on the field as Coach Prime looks to save his program’s culture.
Shane: The Colorado secondary. After getting embarrassed last weekend in Evanston, this unit needs to show resilience and play with some desperation. Baylor wide receiver Gavin Freeman has explosive play ability written all over his stat line from the first three weeks and leads the nation in receptions with 29.
If Buffaloes’ safeties Randon Fontenette and Nate Mitchell can limit the plays Lagway can create with his arm strength, Colorado will be set up to hold Baylor to a similar amount Auburn did in week one.
Wilson: Baylor's X factor is wide receiver Jaden McGowan. He's a shorter, gadget-type receiver who excels at making big plays. He has two touchdowns in each of the last two games. If he gets a couple big plays, that could really swing the momentum in Baylor's favor.
Bold prediction
Shane: Take whatever I say here with a grain of salt, considering I predicted Colorado to have fewer than seven penalties last week. That did not happen, which is why this is a section for bold predictions.
This week, the Buffaloes run the ball over 40 times despite Damian Henderson's absence, and the running backs account for all their scores. JaQuail Smith scores his first touchdown of the season after Colorado offensive coordinator Brennan Marion leans more into the “Go-Go’s” running game.
Jake: Sanders didn’t have the utmost confidence in his redshirt freshman quarterback in his weekly press conference, saying that “he’s not there yet.” Still, Lewis is the quarterback for the Colorado Buffaloes, and if he can’t orchestrate a game similar to that against Weber State or the final drive against Georgia Tech, the Buffaloes will have another year of quarterback controversy.
While I don’t hope for it, my bold take is that Sanders benches Lewis after this game in favor of true freshman Kaneal Sweetwyne.
Final score prediction
Jake: The Buffs have been on the road for three of the past four weeks, and the fatigue seems to be setting in, looking worse each week. Colorado has an opportunity to right the ship, and it is entirely possible. Still, with every facet of the team seemingly needing extra attention, Baylor does enough to get by at home. Colorado loses 35-17 in a game that’s closer than the score may suggest.
Shane: The Buffaloes win their first road Big 12 game since 2024 and beat Baylor 24-21. Colorado’s defense is the MVP after picking off Lagway twice, including one that goes back the other way for six. The Bears get off to the better start and lead at halftime, but the Buffaloes roar back down a touchdown behind a game-winning field goal from Elliot Arnold.
Kickoff for Colorado’s Big 12 opener is scheduled for 10 a.m. MT on ESPN2.
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