Do the Math: Big 12 tournament seeding scenarios
- Various Authors
- 48 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By: Xavier Michnewicz and Jake Chau
The Big 12 provides once again. A chaotic year that saw its fair share of parity could have as many as nine of its 16 teams finish with double-digit wins in the conference.
With the Big 12 Tournament less than a week away and only eight conference games left to be played this weekend, how the tournament shapes up could help Colorado boost their resume or keep it on the outside looking in.
Making things simple, TCU is the one seed, no matter how the TCU vs. Baylor game shakes up. If both Baylor and West Virginia match results, Baylor would get the two seed while West Virginia would get the three seed. If TCU beats Baylor and West Virginia beats Cincinnati, the Mountaineers would get the two seed ahead of Baylor.
That’s the simplest it will get. The drama really begins with the battle for the final double-bye spot.
Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Colorado are all tied for fourth in the conference standings.
If all three teams beat their opponents this weekend, Colorado would jump both of them, due to the tie-breaker rules.
In the event of a three-way tie, a head-to-head record between all three teams would occur. Colorado and Oklahoma State went 2-1 against the two other teams, and the Lady Raiders went just 0-2, eliminating them from the four seed in this scenario.
Now with just a two-way tie, head-to-head record is used first. Well, the two teams split the season series, 1-1.
The next criterion is the record against the best team in the conference, this year being TCU. The Buffaloes beat the Horned Frogs and the Cowgirls didn't, breaking the tie and giving CU the edge and the four seed.
Complicated.
Should Colorado drop their contest in Provo, Utah, it would need to rely on both Texas Tech losing to Arizona State and Oklahoma State losing to Kansas to hold onto the four seed.
If Colorado loses and either Texas Tech and Oklahoma State loses, Colorado will hold the five seed, holding the tiebreaker over both of those teams.
If Colorado loses and both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State win, Colorado will drop down to the six seed and Oklahoma State would get the four seed, holding the tiebreaker over Texas Tech.
In much fewer words - if Colorado beats BYU, they’ll earn the double bye and the four seed headed into the Big 12 Tournament. If they don’t, they’ll need some help from Kansas and Arizona.
Looking at the other seeding possibilities around the conference, Arizona State, Iowa State, Utah, BYU, Kansas and Kansas State are all within one game of each other. This is where things get really complicated.
There are 34 different outcomes among five games; the most important game is Iowa State vs. Kansas State.
If Iowa State wins, they’ll hold the seven seed regardless of any of the other matches, or if all Arizona State, Utah, BYU and Kansas lose.
If the Cyclones do take the win over Kansas State, the Wildcats would be locked into the 12 seed unless BYU loses against the Buffs, then the Wildcats would earn the 11 seed while the Cougars get the 12 seed.
Continuing in this scenario, if the Sun Devils beat the Lady Raiders, they’ll guarantee the last bye spot as an eight seed while Kansas and Utah are left to determine the rest of the spots.
The lowest the Cyclones can get is the 11 seed if they lose to Kansas State and all Utah, BYU, Arizona State and Kansas win.
Kansas State, which holds the fewest tiebreakers, could still earn a bye as an eight seed if they beat Iowa State, Arizona State loses to Texas Tech and Kansas loses to
If every team that’s favored to win avoids being upset, Iowa State would retain the seven seed, while Utah and Arizona State would flip, giving the Utes the bye and the eight seed, while the Sun Devils would have to play on Wednesday in the first round. Kansas would be the 10 seed, while Kansas State and BYU would be locked into the 11th and 12th seeds, respectively.
Perhaps the most chaotic scenario would be if only Kansas State and BYU won out of the group, pushing the Cougars to the seven seed and the Wildcats to the eight seed. This would bar every team currently ahead of them to the first round.
If all six teams finish 9-9, BYU and Iowa State would get byes while Kansas and Kansas State would hold the tiebreakers, finishing ninth and 10th, respectively. Arizona State and Utah who are both currently ahead of them, would get the 11th and 12th seeds.
View all the scenarios here.
The bottom of the conference remains much simpler.
No matter what, Cincinnati is locked into the 13 seed and awaits whoever comes out last among the group of teams above.
If UCF beats Houston and Utah beats Arizona, the Knights would move to the 14 seed while the Wildcats drop to 15. If Arizona wins, they’ll hold onto the 14 seed.
If Houston beats UCF, they’ll jump to the 15 seed, while the Knights would drop to 16, and Arizona keeps the 14 regardless of the outcome of their game.
The parity in the conference is what keeps certainty from determining seeds one game out from the conference tournament.
“It’s such a good league from top to bottom, no matter where you play,” Utah head coach Gavin Petersen said after the Utes beat the Buffs last weekend.
“I’m just excited for the Big 12 to showcase the quality of teams that we have,” Texas Tech head coach Krista Gerlich said after the Lady Raiders’ loss in Boulder earlier this year.
The Big 12 Tournament starts on Wednesday, March 4, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.