The Colorado Buffaloes (3-1) head to Orlando to take on the University of Central Florida Knights (3-0) in what looks to be a water and oil battle of opposing offensive styles.
Both teams are coming off exciting wins. Colorado’s prayer was answered on a last-second Hail Mary to send their matchup to overtime, where they’d eventually beat Baylor after a game-deciding forced fumble on the goal line. Similarly, UCF came back from multiple scores to edge out a one-point win against TCU in their last game and were rewarded with an early break with their bye week.
Central Florida enters the game as heavy favorites at home, which could include a downpour of rain with Hurricane Helene in the area. This home field advantage would be a tremendous boost to the Knight’s run-heavy approach.
UCF currently leads the nation with 375 rushing yards per game, right ahead of famously run-heavy Army and two spots ahead of Heisman hopeful running back Ashton Jeanty’s Boise State Broncos.
As a whole, the Knights offense ranks third in total yards and 14th in total points. This attack is led by running back RJ Harvey and dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson. Harvey’s 448 rushing yards and eight touchdowns through three games put him on pace to exceed his excellent junior season, where he finished with 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Jefferson’s 51 passing attempts is actually lower than Harvey’s 59 rushing attempts, which should tell you all you need to know about UCF’s offensive philosophy. What makes this duo dangerous is that Jefferon’s 29 carries is second on the team, requiring defenses to keep both in check in the run game.
Conversely, the Colorado rushing attack has not found its identity. Four different backs have 11-plus carries, but none have eclipsed 100 yards. Instead, the Buffs have passed their way to success behind their own Heisman candidate quarterback, Shedeur Sanders.
The Knights have one primary receiver in Kobe Hudson. The Buffs feature four different weapons: Travis Hunter, LaJohntay Wester, Will Horn Jr, and Will Sheppard. All four of the Buffalo pass-catchers outpace the second-highest yardage receiver for the Knights. In fact, third on their team with 49 receiving yards, running back Myles Montgomery, has only one catch.
The Buffs prefer to make it rain with their passing attack, while the Knights feature a classic ground-and-pound with the modern twist of a mobile quarterback. Style can make an impact but it’s a matter of who can take away the other’s primary function more effectively.
Colorado has given up 130-plus rushing yards in all four games thus far. Opponents are averaging four yards per carry and 150 yards per game on the Buffs. While their second half defense tends to be much improved, they haven’t been able to stop the bleeding for a full game.
UCF has had their own problems defending the pass. Their best defense has been ball control and forcing offenses to become one-dimensional, but that was just barely enough against TCU. Quarterback Josh Hoover went for 400 yards and four touchdowns against the Central Florida defense on 52 passing attempts. More concerning is that on those 52 attempts, the Knights were unable to record a singular sack or interception.
Through their season’s three games, UCF has only recorded one sack and one forced fumble. No disrespect to Hoover, but Shedeur Sanders and an explosive Colorado offense may pose a larger threat. What has killed Colorado offensively has been pressure that forced Sanders into bad or rushed decisions, but that’s precisely where the Knights have failed to capitalize.
These two teams are a true yin and yang of college football offense, and neither are well-equipped to stop the opposing side. Had this game been in Colorado or at least in clear weather, there’s a good chance they could pull off this upset. With the game in Florida during hurricane-season, it’ll be hard for CU to play their brand of football, while the weather would complement exactly what UCF likes to do.
We will see how Colorado prepares, but unless they find the calm before the storm, then it is unlikely we’ll see the passing attack they will need to win.
This clash of strategy will come to a head on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. MT and be broadcast on FOX.
Cover photo by Cristian Blanco/Sko Buffs Sports
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