Preview: How Colorado matches up with No. 14 TCU

The CU bench celebrates a 3-pointer against Oklahoma State. (Photo by Aspen Doust/Sko Buffs Sports)

Ahead of their matchup with No. 20 West Virginia  (19-5, 9-3 Big 12), the Colorado Buffaloes had won four out of their last five contests, trending in the right direction as March draws near.

But after dropping a nail-biter against those Mountaineers, Colorado (15-8, 6-5) will have to show its mental fortitude against the even tougher No. 14 TCU Horned Frogs (21-3, 9-2) on Sunday. 

Fourth quarters continued to be a struggle for the Buffs against West Virginia, only shooting 23 percent from the field in that frame while the Mountaineers hit on 43 percent of theirs. The game ended in only a six-point loss; if the Buffs made just three more shots, they would have forced overtime.

Across the whole game, Colorado hit on just south of 36 percent of its shots from the field, a number the Buffs have to improve on as they look towards hosting the Horned Frogs. 

Senior forward Jade Masagayo only sank two of her nine attempts, but put down all nine of her free throw attempts for 12 points. The Buffs will have to lean on Masagayo and her 6-foot-3 frame against the Horned Frogs. 

TCU and 6-foot-7 sophomore center Clara Silva block shots at a top-15 rate nationally. Silva averages nearly eight rebounds and two blocks per game for TCU.

Forwards like Masagayo and senior Anaëlle Dutat, who thrive on shooting from inside, need to be creative to beat the Horned Frogs.

Colorado will have to find a way to make its shots on Sunday because once the Horned Frogs’ defense knocks their opponent, they’re all over them. TCU has the nation’s best field goal defense, only allowing 32.8 percent of its opponents’ shots to fall. This culminates in holding its opponents to the ninth-fewest points of any program in the nation. Colorado needs to stay poised and take smart, high-percentage shots, and that starts by getting to the interior.

“We're tough, we're blue collar, we're fearless, we play hard, we never wilt,” Colorado head coach JR Payne said. “We don't play perfect basketball, we make plenty of mistakes, but our toughness and fearlessness is never in question.”

That fearlessness needs to bolster CU’s defense against senior guard Olivia Miles.

Miles has made over 50 percent of her shots this season for a total of 19.3 points per game, including four triple-doubles and three double-doubles. That number gets more impressive when you consider that 35 percent of her shot collection is from beyond the perimeter. Miles hits her 3-pointers at nearly a 35 percent rate. 

This combination of stout defense and bona fide scorers puts the Horned Frogs as the seventh-best scoring margin in the country.

While TCU is 25th in the nation in 3-point percentage, Colorado has been hot and cold on its 3-point defense this season. Should the Buffs limit Miles like they did the nation’s leading scorer, Iowa State center Audi Crooks, the Buffs could absolutely have a shot at the upset.

Even though the Buffs lost the turnover battle 17-15 against the Mountaineers, every WVU starter had more than two turnovers. Colorado needs to bring that energy against the Horned Frogs and push the pace. 

TCU has a top-25 assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation, so the Buffs need to force poor passes and clog passing lanes.

While TCU may be the most well-rounded team in the Big 12, Colorado has proven that it can hang around. But as we count down the days until March, hanging around isn’t enough. Colorado will look to get a huge resume booster with a win over TCU on Sunday at the CU Events Center. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. MT (ESPN+).