Big 12 Tournament is make or break for Colorado’s season
- Various Authors
- 42 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By Jake Chau and Xavier Michnewicz
With a glass floor for the Big 12 Tournament, the Colorado Buffaloes will look to break through a glass ceiling as they attempt to keep their March Madness hopes alive.
After dropping the last two games of their regular season against Utah and BYU, the Buffaloes finished at 20-10 and 11-7 in the Big 12. While fumbling a double-bye and a No. 4-seed, Colorado’s finish was still good enough for a first-round bye and a No. 6 seed.
“Our team is pretty motivated, ” head coach JR Payne said on Tuesday. “Those two losses are really not sitting well with us. We really don’t feel like we played our best … We are very motivated to go out and perform.”
Luckily for the Buffaloes, they face two teams they played this season. Colorado will play the winner of No. 11 Kansas (18-12, 8-10 Big 12) and No. 14 UCF (11-18, 3-15 Big 12), who play at 7 p.m. MT on Wednesday.
“The bye is great. At this point in the season, nobody is completely healthy,” Payne said. “Having fresh legs and feeling that you have had time to focus on [the] opponent is an advantage for us.”
In their only matchup against the Jayhawks, the Buffs had a four-point lead, but couldn’t hit on six straight free throws to ice the game, allowing the Jayhawks to force overtime. Colorado won in extra time courtesy of senior forward Jade Masagayo and junior guard Desiree Wooten, who had sevn points each.
Kansas has gone 5-2 since, with losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Since playing Colorado, freshman forward Jaliya Davis and junior guard S'Mya Nichols have averaged 21 and 16.9 points per game, respectively, alongside a combined 13.5 rebounds. The Jayhawks have found success scoring inside during that stretch, averaging 37.1 points per game in the paint.
If the Buffs face the Jayhawks, they’ll need to limit Nichols from getting hot. In both of Kansas’s losses in February, Nichols scored less than 15 points on fewer than seven shots.
Playing UCF was when Colorado’s season looked like it had hit rock bottom. However, after losing to the Knights, the Buffaloes rallied and won eight of their next nine games as UCF went on a skid.
The Knights lost 10 straight after defeating Colorado, winning their last game of the season against the Big 12’s worst team in Houston.
Colorado and Payne are no strangers to a rocky end to a season. In the Buffaloes’ last Sweet Sixteen run, they lost to middling Washington State at home. However, the last time the Buffaloes lost back-to-back games to end a season was in Payne’s fourth year.
“It’s better we lost in the season than when it's win-or-go-home,” guard Zyanna Walker said regarding the losses on Tuesday. “All we can do is use that as fuel.”
If Colorado advances to the quarterfinals of the conference tourney, awaiting them will be the No. 3-seeded Baylor Bears. As a top-four seed, Baylor earned a double-bye and extra rest.
Colorado kept close with the Bears in their matchup in January, but ultimately couldn’t come back against then-No. 16 Baylor, losing by just four points.
Sophomore guard Taliah Scott has led the Bears offensively, scoring 18.7 points per game in Big 12 play, while senior forward Darianna Littlepage-Buggs has posted 11.3 points per game and 9.3 rebounds.
Colorado will look to limit Scott’s presence. She has shot just 33% in each of Baylor’s seven losses, compared to 41% in the Bears’ wins.
From there, the bracket remains wide open. The top four seeds are No. 1 TCU, which the Buffs beat earlier this season, No. 2 West Virginia, the aforementioned No. 3 Bears and No. 4 Oklahoma State, all of whom Colorado has lost to.
The Buffs find themselves on the bubble of March Madness, and quality wins over teams ranked above them could make the difference as they look to boost their resume.
TCU is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 when it comes to analyzing the NET, and 11-4 in Quad 1 and 2 contests.
West Virginia is ranked 18th at 10-6, and Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech are ranked from 29th to 31st in NET, respectively.
Colorado is ranked 46th and 6-8 against Quads 1 and 2.
Because the Big 12 Tournament is at a neutral site, the Buffs can boost their 1-4 Quad 1 record with wins over any of the teams ranked above them.
Quad 1 wins will be important, as a team's record in those settings has historically been a good indicator of whether the selection committee will put them in the Big Dance.
Richmond is the first team out in the latest ESPN Bracketology, despite being nine spots above the Buffs in the NET. The Spiders are winless in two Quad 1 contests.
“That team that won eight of their last [nine] games is still here,” Walker said about the statement Colorado needs to make. “That team that’s beaten top-20 teams, that we are still that team. We are still that team that can compete with anybody.”
Colorado plays its first game of the Big 12 tournament on Thursday. Tip-off against the Jayhawks or Knights is set for 7 p.m. MT (ESPN+).