Breaking down Colorado’s tough path to the Final Four

10-seed Colorado tips-off its NCAA Tournament run on Saturday against the seventh-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini. (Photo by Kekoa Brown/Sko Buffs Sports)

The Colorado Buffaloes are back in the Big Dance, this time in Music City.

Colorado made the NCAA Tournament as a No. 10 seed, heading to Nashville, Tennessee, with No. 2 seed Vanderbilt hosting the first two rounds. The Buffaloes will face the seventh-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini in the Round of 64 on Saturday. Colorado is in the first Fort Worth quadrant, including the tournament's top overall seed, the UConn Huskies. 

Head coach JR Payne and the Buffaloes lived on the bubble all season before a semifinal run in the Big 12 Tournament sealed the deal for a March Madness berth. 

In their last two tournament trips, the Buffaloes reached the Sweet Sixteen in back-to-back years. In those runs, Colorado beat its host team to make the second weekend, but this year the path will be tougher.  The Buffaloes will need to be firing on all cylinders for a deep run. 

“What’s great about our program is, truly, we’re just trying to be great every single day,” Payne said about her past tournament experience. “And if we keep that mindset, however long we get to play, it takes the nerves out of it.” 

Round 1: Illinois

Colorado’s first-round matchup is no slouch. The Illini captured their second-straight NCAA Tournament appearance after making the Round of 32 last season. Illinois had a similar season to the Buffaloes, capturing 21 wins with three over ranked opponents.

Led by a group of talented underclassmen, they are the youngest team across the tournament. Among those underclassmen is a front-court tandem of Berry Wallace and Cearah Parchment, averaging 18.4 and 13.4 points per game, respectively. 

Round 2: Vanderbilt or High Point

Colorado will likely face No. 6-ranked (No. 2 seed) Vanderbilt in the Round of 32, given a win over Illinois. The Commodores are a tough draw, as they finished second in the SEC and are led by one of the nation’s best players. Guard Mikayla Blakes was a Player of the Year finalist, scoring 27 points per game, the highest mark in the nation. 

If High Point pulls off the upset, the Big South champs captured 27 wins this season and five losses, with three coming in the last six games of the season. The Panthers are led by the Big South’s leading scorer, guard Macy Spencer, scoring 18.4 points per game. 

Sweet Sixteen: Ohio State 

While the possibilities vary from 14-seed Howard to six-seed Notre Dame, the third-seeded Buckeyes are the most likely choice. Ohio State finished fourth in the Big Ten with six wins over ranked opponents, including Colorado’s Big 12 foe, West Virginia. Led by All-Big Ten selection, guard Jaloni Cambridge, Ohio State scores 81.7 points per game, but ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten in points allowed. 

Elite Eight: UConn 

The possibilities don’t vary for what could be Colorado’s Elite Eight matchup; UConn will be there. The Huskies are the favorites to win the NCAA Championship after an undefeated 34-0 season and a Big East title. 

Tip-off for Colorado against the Illini is set for 7:30 p.m. MT (ESPN 2).