Colorado faces uphill battle against No. 11 Utah in Rumble in the Rockies
By: Shane Holcombe & Jake Chau
Head coach Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders is 2-8 against ranked opponents and is looking to change the narrative.
In the Coach Prime era, the Colorado Buffaloes (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) are 1-4 after a bye week. They’re looking to avoid a four-game losing streak when the No. 11-ranked Utah Utes (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) come to Boulder for CU’s parents weekend.
Last week, the Buffs got close, keeping the then No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders within one score for most of the game.
This week, keeping the score close may be harder.
Meet the opponent
The Utes are positioned as Big 12 title contenders and are also in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. With a potent offense averaging over 42 points per game and a defense holding opponents to just 13 points per game, they’ve won every game in blowout fashion. Both are the best marks in the conference.
Utah is potentially the most well-rounded team the Buffs will face this year. With the conference’s top scoring offense and defense, the Utes are top three in yards gained on offense and yards allowed on defense.
That success largely comes from junior running back Wayshawn Parker. Parker is tied for the nation’s fourth-best mark in touchdown totals with 11 total touchdowns: seven on the ground and four through the air. That’s just one shy of the Buffs' season total.
He ran for 499 rushing yards and averaged over two touchdowns a game, which helped put Utah as the eighth best rushing attack in the country.
Quarterback Devon Dampier, who has had the most snaps at quarterback, has also found the end zone 15 times. He has thrown for 12 and run for three. Colorado has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, and could have their work cut out for them against Dampier and the Utes.
If they do figure Dampier out, Utah could turn to backup Byrd Ficklin, who threw for 140 yards and two touchdowns against the Buffs last year. He also threatens with his legs, running for 151 yards and a touchdown in the last Rumble in the Rockies.
The dual-threat abilities of both quarterbacks will be tricky for defensive coordinator Chris Marve. And Utah has played both of them. Dampier has had more volume, but Ficklin can ball in his own right, so the Buffs will have to shut down both.
“They do some things that create problems,” Sanders said.
It all starts up front, and Utah head coach Morgan Scalley sung the praises of his offensive line during his weekly press conference.
“[Our success] doesn't happen without a great offensive line,” Scalley said.
Unfortunately for Colorado, Utah’s strengths match up well with the Buffs' success. Colorado has run the ball well this season, and the Utes have limited opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. They’ve also posted the best defensive efficiency in the Big 12, over 15 points better than the next-best opponent.
“It’s going to be a daunting task offensively,” Sanders said at his media availability this week.
How Colorado wins the game
Jake: Shut those quarterbacks down.
With Utah's multidimensional offense, making it one-dimensional will be key to realizing Sanders’ and the Buffs’ dream of upsetting Utah. It won’t be easy, as the Utes have the conference’s second-best rushing offense, led by Parker and the quarterbacks’ legs, and the fifth-best passing offense, with two passers.
Colorado’s defense has also kept them in games so far this year and has done an excellent job at shutting down the run and creating momentum. The Buffs have the eighth-most TFLs in the nation with 44, down from third after the bye week.
Shane: Take better care of the football.
Colorado threw four interceptions to the Red Raiders a few weeks ago, and Isaac Wilson’s fourth-quarter dagger pick-6 in the endzone was embarrassing. If the Buffaloes want any shot at competing, they need to win the turnover battle, something they haven’t done since week one.
“If you take away the turnovers, he’d (Wilson) probably be player of the week,” Colorado offensive coordinator Brennan Marion said Wednesday.
The Utes bring one of the country's best defenses to Boulder and have forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Wilson will have to throw to the right team after spending the last two seasons on Utah’s sideline.
How Colorado loses the game
Shane: The Buffaloes start slow.
Colorado expects a near-sellout crowd at Folsom, but if the team doesn't come out with urgency on Saturday night, those fans could be leaving by halftime. The Buffs have scored only 10 first-half points in their last three games combined, and there’s no reason the lack of red-zone execution won’t continue.
This is a rivalry game after all, and even though the talent gap is wide, I'd respect Colorado more if they went down fighting.
Jake: The Buffs didn’t use the bye week to fix their problems.
Colorado is one of the nation's most penalized teams, with over 82.5 penalty yards per game. The Buffs have struggled with discipline this season, and they needed the bye week to get back in the right headspace to clean up their play. They can’t give Utah any more yards than they need to be giving them.
X Factor
Jake: Wilson. Sanders named him the starter, and in facing his old team, Wilson will be ready to ball out. He threw for almost 300 yards in the Buffs' last matchup but also threw three interceptions. Against the stout Utah defense, Wilson will need to be the leader the Buffs want at quarterback. If he replicates that success and limits mistakes, he’ll significantly boost the Buffs' chances of winning.
He also brings a unique experience after playing for Utah last season.
“He's going to know some things terminology wise,” Scalley said. “At the same time, we have a feel for his strengths and weaknesses.”
Shane: Chris Marve’s defense. The unit is the only respectable part of the past few Colorado performances, and held Texas Tech to just 3-for-12 on third downs two weeks ago. If Marve keeps impressing with aggressive playcalling and gets off the field on situational downs, this game could be a contest.
Next, the Buffaloes’ defense needs to turn the other team over. The defense has forced only two takeaways in the last three games, and a catbuster pick-six could be part of an upset recipe.
Bold prediction
Shane: Colorado’s running backs are held for under 100 yards. If Utah takes an early commanding lead, the Buffaloes will once again be forced to do something that isn’t the strength of the offense: throw the football. After running for 180 yards and 5.5 yards per carry against Northwestern, Colorado hasn’t had a single running back go for over 40 yards.
“We want to keep the ball between 17 and 24 pass attempts, but it depends on how the game is flowing,” Coach Prime said Tuesday. “But we don't want to get into that because we're not great when we're throwing the ball that much.”
The Utes have surrendered only 2.9 yards per rushing attempt, and I don’t see that mark changing much against an inferior team that will be forced to throw the football, whether Marion likes it or not.
Jake: Some reports say Quanell Farrakhan Jr. switched his number during the bye week, allowing quarterback Keneal Sweetwyne and Farrakhan to take the field at the same time. Previously, they both wore 14. Sweetwyne can run, and in offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense, he could prove valuable. My bold prediction: he runs for 100 yards.
The scenario is unlikely since Wilson is the starter. Still, if Wilson starts throwing early picks to a Utah defense that’s forced the second-most interceptions in the conference, Sweetwyne could see some action.
Final score prediction
Jake: The Utes are better than the Buffs in every facet of the game and roll the Buffs 31-3.
Shane: Utah is head and shoulders the more serious program at the current moment. Colorado will provide some spark, but its best unit, the defense, has to stop one of the country’s best offenses.
The Buffaloes simply aren’t built to win a shootout, much less a game where they have to score more than 17 points. Utah wins 38-14.
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