Colorado's outlook on the 2026 Big 12 tournament
- Various Authors
- 9 hours ago
- 4 min read
By Liam Howard & Matt Spivack
The Colorado Buffaloes (17-14, 7-11 Big 12) are set to enter their second Big 12 tournament since rejoining the conference in 2024. Any March Madness hopes they have lie in their ability to string together an improbable run and win the Big 12 championship. Despite the odds, it is familiar territory for CU.
Matchup vs Oklahoma State
Finishing the regular season with a 7-11 record, the Buffs are locked into the No. 11 seed in the Big 12 Championship. They will face the No. 14-seed Oklahoma State Cowboys (18-13, 6-12) in the first round of the tournament on Tuesday.
The two teams played just over two weeks ago in Boulder, with Colorado securing a double-digit win in front of its home crowd. The Buffs’ defense shut down the Cowboys' offense, holding them to 38 percent from the floor and 22 percent from 3-point range.
This time around, the Cowboys will be without star forward Parsa Fallah, who suffered a torn ACL in the team’s win over the West Virginia Mountaineers on Feb. 24. Fallah led the team in rebounds (six) and was second in points per game (14.7) before his injury. The senior’s 14 points against Colorado in the last matchup were a team-high for the Cowboys.
Since Fallah’s injury, freshman center Benjamin Ahmed and sophomore forward Andrija Vukovic have taken over the vacant starting spot. Ahmed started in the Cowboys’ last two regular-season games, averaging 10.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in those contests.
The Buffaloes may also have a different starting lineup from the regular-season bout, as star forward Sebastian Rancik risks missing his third-straight game. The sophomore suffered an injury in practice leading up to the Utah game and has not played since. However, Colorado has played well in the two games without Rancik, beating the Utah Utes on the road and keeping up with the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats in the final match of the Big 12 regular season.
Both squads will have to exercise patience, waiting out the first three games of the day, until tip-off at 7:30 p.m. MT.
Potential upset vs TCU (2nd round)
A first-round win for the Buffs would match them up with the No. 6-seed TCU Horned Frogs (21-10, 11-7) in the second round of the tournament.
Colorado beat TCU in the lone meeting between the two schools this season by 26 points at the CU Events Center. That outcome does not accurately represent this Horned Frogs squad at this point in the year. The squad ended the regular season on a five-game winning streak and has won eight of its last nine. During that stretch, it beat two top-10 teams in Iowa State and Texas Tech.
Colorado enters the tournament winning just four of its last nine games, losing to all four ranked opponents it faced. For the Buffs to go toe-to-toe with a Horned Frogs squad that has been on fire, they have to catch a wave of momentum off a dominant first-round performance.
Luckily for the Buffs, they have done it once before. In the early February matchup between the two squads, Colorado held TCU to 33 percent from the floor and 22 percent from 3-point range. On the other side of the floor, the Buffs had an efficient night, shooting 56 percent from the field and 48 percent from deep.
The Horned Frogs’ offense relies on its forward trio of David Punch, Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson. They average a combined 37 points and 18 rebounds per game, accounting for 47 percent of TCU’s points and 50 percent of its rebounds per game.
If the Buffs get past the Cowboys in the first round, they will look to replicate their early-season success against a red-hot Horned Frogs team.
Last year’s Cinderella story
With their seeding, the Buffaloes will need to piece together a Cinderella run to reach the Big 12 championship. While the odds are stacked against them, an underdog story in the Big 12 tournament is one they’ve written before.
During the 2025 Big 12 tournament, the Buffaloes entered the field at the bottom of the conference; the No.16-seed. They came into the tournament with a 12-19 record (3-17), the worst of Tad Boyle’s tenure at CU.
However, the Buffs emerged victorious in their first-round matchup against the No. 9-seeded TCU Horned Frogs. Forward Andrej Jakimovski recorded 18 points and seven rebounds in the game. Both were team-highs.
“That’s why they have these postseason tournaments,” Boyle said following the upset. “...The 16-seed can sometimes surprise some people, like we did today. Now it’s our job to go do it tomorrow.”
Boyle’s team did their job successfully, overcoming a 23-point night from WVU star guard Javon Small to win 67-60. Center Elijah Malone had a breakout game of sorts off the bench as he recorded 14 points and four rebounds while shooting 7-for10 from the field.
“The confidence my teammates had in me making those plays,” Malone said concerning what helped him maintain his offensive rhythm. “Just getting me the ball and looking for me to make those plays helped a lot down the stretch.”
CU was then tasked with facing the No. 1-seeded (No. 2 AP) Houston Cougars in the quarterfinals. It was the first time in Division I history that a No. 16-seed had made the quarterfinals in its conference tournament. The Buffaloes’ historic run came to a screeching halt, though, as they fell at the hands of the Cougars 77-68.
Still, Boyle and this Colorado team have shown that they know how to piece together such a run. With this season’s team having much more regular-season success, there’s no doubt they have the talent necessary to repeat history.
The determining factor on whether they will or not: how badly does this team want its season to continue?
“The key is, first-round games are usually won by the team that does not want their season to end,” Boyle said following CU’s loss to Arizona on Saturday. “We have to be that team.”