Is March Madness a possibility for Colorado men’s basketball this year?

Colorado center Elijah Malone tries to deal with the pain after a collision with Kansas forward Flory Bidunga at the CU Events Center on Tuesday, Jan. 20, in Boulder, Colorado. Malone was hospitalized due to the pain, but no injury was disclosed.

The Colorado Buffaloes men’s basketball team hasn’t been to March Madness since 2024, and their chances this year seem bleak.

The Buffs didn’t have high expectations before this season after finishing last season with a 3-17 conference record that had them last in the Big 12. However, two upset wins in last year's conference tournament built momentum for the returners, leading to the team’s first 8-0 start since 1949,  giving the Buffs hope that this season could be different. After the 8-0 start, CU head coach Tad Boyle had high praise for the team.

“This team can be as special as it wants to be,” Boyle said.

Unfortunately for the Buffs, things have gone downhill fast for the Buffs. Since then, they have gone 4-8 overall and began 2-5 in the Big 12. They have lost their last five games, and there are worries that the season is starting to slip away. Yet, freshman guard Isaiah Johnson isn’t discouraged by the recent losing streak.

“There’s a whole bunch of basketball left to play,” Johnson, the team's leading scorer, said. ”We could really go on a good run and win a lot of games.”

If the Buffs are going to go on a run, they better do it soon, as they only have 11 games left in league play and need to win at least eight to have a good shot at making the tournament as an at-large bid. They would also need to have a deep run in the Big 12 tournament. 

Still, the Buffs haven’t done great this season against good teams. They are 0-4 in Quad 1 games and 3-3 in Quad 2. A Quad 4 loss against Northern Colorado was a huge blow to the Buffs’ March Madness hopes. 

To finish the season, the Buffs play two Quad 3 games, with Arizona State and Kansas State coming to Boulder. They also play three Quad 2 games against TCU and Oklahoma State at home, and Utah on the road. To even have a shot at March Madness, Colorado needs to win these games. 

In addition to winning all these affairs, the Buffs will also need to grab several Quad 1 wins. They play six Quad 1 games during their last 11 games. The easiest of these contests would be Baylor, 11th-ranked Texas Tech and 13th-ranked BYU, though all those games are on the road. They also play first-ranked Arizona, 10th-ranked Houston and eighth-ranked Iowa State, but these games will be significantly more difficult, especially with the undefeated Wildcats being the only team set to play CU at the CU Events Center.

The Buffs currently have a NET Ranking of 81, which isn’t good enough to make March Madness. But getting some big wins down the stretch of the season could change this.

If the Buffs don’t have a good finish to their regular season, they could win the Big 12 tournament and gain an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Winning the conference tournament as a lower seed isn’t impossible. The Buffs won the Pac-12 tournament in 2012 as the sixth seed, and they have beaten higher-seeded teams in their last two conference tournaments. 

According to ESPN Bracketology, the Big 12 is currently projected to have seven bids to the NCAA tournament. The Buffs are currently in 11th place in the Big 12, so they have a bit of work to do if they want to earn one of those bids. 

All hope isn’t lost for the Buffs, but the way they have played so far this season doesn’t indicate they can win games against good teams. Colorado could change this and capture a top 10 win on Thursday as it takes on eighth-ranked Iowa State in Ames.

Cover photo by Cristian Blanco/Sko Buffs Sports